TREND, FORECAST AND SUPPLY RESPONSE OF CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (1961 TO 2014)

Abstract

Cassava is one of the most important staple foods in Nigeria, simulation of models that will increase the production of cassava is very necessary. The study was conducted to estimate trend, forecast and supply response of cassava production in Nigeria. Secondary data covering the period of 1961 to 2014 were used for the study. Secondary data used include prices, yield, output and hectarage of Cassava. Other data include rainfall, number of rain days, date of onset and cessation of rain, temperature and relative humidity. The data was obtained from Food and Agricultural Organization (F.A.O.), International Institutes of Tropical Agriculture (I.I.T.A.), Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S.) and Nigeria Meteorological Agency. To achieve the aim of the study, four techniques were employed to analyse the data. The techniques were growth rate, grafted technique, partial adjustment hypothesis and adaptive expectation hypothesis. Simulations were also carried out to show the effect of some macro-level policy (pre-SAP, SAP, post-SAP and A.T.A. periods) changes on cassava production. The entire periods under study shows an encouraging result on the hectarage, yield and output with growth rates of 4.1%, 0.1% and 4.2% respectively. The result of the study also revealed that polynomial spline models were adjudged to be the best forecasting model among other models like linear, semi-log and growth models. The study also forecast hectarage, yield and output of cassava from 2015 to 2035. The results show that by the year 2035, the hectarage to be cultivated will be 11,200,000 hectares, yield will be 98,000kg/ha and output will also be 11,000,000 tonnes. The result revealed that the mean of the partial adjustment coefficient of the farmers was 4.69E-07 while adaptive expectation coefficient was -0. 256186542 indicating that less error were committed in making hectarage decisions than in forming price expectation. The results of elasticity of supply were relatively inelastic both at the short run and long run. The short run and log run elasticities were -8.41E-15 and -2.74E-08 respectively for the partial adjustment hypothesis and -3.97E-02 for short run and 0.217803916 for long run under adaptive expectation hypothesis, this shows that farmers’ response to price have not been encouraging. The conclusion shows that there was an increase in the growth rate of cassava production in Nigeria from 1961 to 2014, the findings also shows that spline models were best fit in forecasting cassava production in Nigeria. Cassava farmers are less responsive to change in price and economic incentives. The recommendations, thus, there is the need to establish the short term and long term cassava needs base on present population rate of growth and employ the models estimated to establish hectarage, yield and output that will provide this need. The estimated elasticities of cassava supply are useful guide in studying the responsiveness of the farmers especially with regards to price and can be used in studies where such an estimate is required. Government should reintroduce minimum and maximum pricing policy with enough resources to guard it. Technology in farming has the tendency in increasing output; therefore, Government and private sector should train farmers on modern technology of farming.