DROUGHT INCIDENCE AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN KANO METROPOLIS, KANO STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT

Drought is caused by a deficiency in precipitation for a period of time. This may cause widespread crop failure, death of livestock, water shortages, famine and other hardships that may result in the loss of human lives and this is an inherent characteristic of Africa. The aim of this study was to assess drought incidence in Kano metropolis and its impacts on agricultural production. The data utilized for this study include; rainfall and temperature data as from 1981 to 2014 for Kano metropolis which was sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and groundnut, sorghum and millet yield data as from 1996 to 2013 for Kano metropolis which was sourced from Kano State Agricultural Development Agency (KNARDA). To derive the climatic trend of rainfall and temperature, as well as the identification of the drought years, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used and this clearly showed the irregular trend of rainfall, as well as the drought years. For the crop yield trend, a simple polygon was used, where the mean annual yield of each crop was computed and the polygon was plotted for the various years under concern. The results indicates that there is very strong positive relationship between climatic parameters and the crop yield. The multiple regression model summary for each of the crops study gave coefficient of determination-square as 0.71, 0.90 and 0.97 respectively indicating a strong positive correlation between the climatic elements and crop yield. This implies that about 71%, 90% and 97% of any changes in groundnut, sorghum and millet yields respectively was accounted for by rainfall. and temperature. The study recommended early drought monitoring and warning systems for the study area. There should be regular awareness and enlightenment campaigns to the general public on the causes of drought as well as coping mechanisms to drought events.