Symptomatic and Climatic Based Malaria Threat Detection using Multilevel Thresholding Feed-Forward Neural Network.

Abstract

Recent worldwide medical research is focusing on new intelligence approaches for diagnosis of various infections. The sporadic occurrence of malaria diseases in human has pushed the need to develop computational approaches for its diagnoses. Most existing conventional malaria models for classification problems examine the dynamics of asymptomatic and morphological characteristics of malaria parasite in the thick blood smear, but this study examine the symptomatic characteristics of malaria parasite combined with effects of climatic factor which is a great determinant of malaria severity. The need to predict the occurrence of malaria disease and its outbreak will be helpful to take appropriate actions by individuals, World Health Organizations and Government Agencies and its devastating impact will be reduced. This paper proposed Feed-Forward Back-Propagation (FF_BP) Neural Network model to determine the rate of malaria transmission. Monthly averages of climatic factors; rainfall, temperature and relative humidity with monthly malaria incidences were used as input variables. An optimum threshold value of 0.7100 with classification accuracy 87.56%, sensitivity 96.67% and specificity 76.67% and mean square error of 0.100 were achieved. While, the model malaria threat detection rate was 87.56%, positive predictive value was 89.23%, negative predictive value was 92.00% and the standard deviation is 2.533. The statistical analysis of Feed-Forward Back-Propagation Neural Network model was conducted and its results were compared with other existing models to check its robustness and viability.