Assessing the Relationships between Weather Variables and Heavy Rainfall in the Guinea Savanna Ecological Zone of Nigeria

Abstract

Heavy rainfall is a feature of rainfall in Nigeria. Hence this research aimed at assessing the relationships between weather variables such as thunderstorms (TSs), relative humidity (RH), wind direction as well as wind speed (predictors) and heavy rainfall (predictant) in the Guinea Savanna Ecological Zone of Nigeria (GSEZN). Daily data on the predictors and the predictant from 1981 to 2015 (35 years) were sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), Oshodi, Lagos and used for the research. The objectives of the study were to determine the compatibility of weather variables in running multiple linear regression and to assess the relationships between weather variables and heavy rainfall. The correlation matrix and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) were used to analyse the data. Results showed that temperature and relative humidity have strong negative relationship, hence not compatible in running MLR, while relative humidity as well as other predictants are compatible in running MLR and that TSs have the strongest relationship with heavy rainfall over the study area. Recommendations focused on the monitoring and forecasting of TSs and heavy rainfall