ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABLES FOR EFFECTIVE HYDRO ELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT

The climate change evidence and its variability abounds, especially with respect to observed increase in temperature, erratic precipitation patterns and increasing incidence of weather related disasters. All these have consequences on water resources and energy provision, particularly hydropower. Power output in Nigeria over the years has been erratic and part of this problem is the issue of climate variability. This study examines the impact of climate on hydropower production in the three major dams (Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro) in Nigeria. The specific objective is to assess the impact of changes in hydroclimatic variables on hydropower production in Nigeria. Multiple correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to determine the relationship between hydroclimatic variables and power production. Water balance analysis was carried out to examine climate and water yield relationships. The results indicate a correlation coefficient of between 0.727 and 0.847 on power output and hydroclimatic variables. It is recommended that alternative water optimisation procedures are provided for the dams based on the knowledge of the association between hydroclimatic variables and power production, and continuous monitoring of changes in the hydroclimatic variables be intensified to provide early warning for effective performance of the dams and to protect downstream environment of these dams.