Livelihood Diversification and Households’ Vulnerability to Climate Change in Inland Towns in Mopani District, South Africa

Abstract

Climate change is already an undoubted reality with complex interactions and increasing human socioeconomic (Livelihood) consequences. This study investigates the nexus between Households Vulnerability Index (HVI) and Livelihood Diversifications Index (LDI) in non-coastal Mopani towns, South Africa. A scientifically-guided sample (size) of 500 from estimated population of 34,790 was drawn, using random sampling procedure, while monthly climatic data were extracted from gridded high-resolution satellite datasets for the period 1957-2017. The trends in temperature and rainfall are determined using Trend Analysis. United Nations Habitat’s HVI and Herfindahl–Hirschman LDI are employed for the analysis of household’s HVI and LDI accordingly. The study reveals increasing temperature and declining rainfall overtime in the study area. While about a quarter of the sampled households are job seekers, 51% have multiple income sources. High HVI was recorded across the District. Meanwhile a point increase in LDI, reduces HVI by 3.092, 9.238, and 1.290 points in Tzaneen, Modjadjiskloof and Giyani towns respectively. The paper recommends livelihood diversification strategy, particularly into non-climate-fed activities, while emphasising private sector-driven youth entrepreneurship programme.