A Grey-Markov Model for the Prediction of Vehicular Accidents along Lokoja-Abuja- Kaduna Express Way in Nigeria

Abstract

Providing government of Nigeria with reliable and dependable mathematical model for road safety policy formulation in order to reduce loss of lives and properties along Lokoja-Abuja- Kaduna Express way is the thrust of this research. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that road traffic accident claims roughly 1.3 million lives annually which make it one of the top causes of death worldwide. A Grey-Markov model that predicts yearly number of Vehicular accidents occurrence has been developed and implemented on Lokoja-Abuja- Kaduna express way in Nigeria. The data used in the research were collected from the archive of federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria for a period of ten years (2010-2019). The fitted model recorded excellent performance of 93.544% accuracy; this shows that the model is reliable and dependable. Therefore, results from this model could serves as source of information for road safety policy formulation