Spatiotemporal Analysis of Agricultural Drought Event over Niger South, Nigeria

Abstract

Drought virtually occurs in all climatic zones but its characteristics vary significantly from one region to another. Nigeria like many West African countries has been afflicted by droughts occasioned by the negative trend pattern of rainfall since 1970s. Thus, this study assessed the spatiotemporal pattern of agricultural drought event over Niger South, Nigeria. Observation datasets (1965-2015) of precipitation and temperature obtained from the Climate Research Unit (CRU_TS 4.06) were analyzed. Agricultural drought indices, namely agricultural standardized precipitation index (aSPI) and effective reconnaissance drought index (eRDI) were used to characterize the drought event over the area. The results of the study reveal that all the locations within the study area had experienced drought events ranging from mild drought to extreme drought. A very severe to extreme drought was recorded in the years 1973-1974, 1987- 1988, 2001-2002, 2011-2012 and 2015 in all the locations. A good agreement (r > 0.90) was found between the two indices. The results imply that the region had experienced droughts that are capable of attracting loss in crop and animal production. More so, the results show that the drought pattern is consistent with the popular pattern over Northern Nigeria and most parts of West Africa. The study provided a framework for agricultural drought monitoring and mitigation strategy in Niger South. Identifying drought-resistant crops as well as farming strategies that will mitigate the impact of drought in case of future occurrence has become a necessity