APPLICATION OF DECOMPOSITION TECHNIQUE ON ADMITTANCE INTO ORPHANAGE HOMES

Abstract

This study applies the decomposition technique to the admission of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) into orphanage homes. Previous studies have focused primarily on the number of OVC, estimating the number of deceased parents, and examining the socioeconomic well-being of OVC. Therefore, there is a need to examine the pattern of OVC admittance. Monthly data were collected from the register of the Niger State Orphanage Home over a twenty-year period (2000-2020). A time series decomposition analysis was conducted to determine an appropriate model, investigate the trend of OVC admission, and determine if there is a seasonal effect in the series. The results showed that the mean number of OVC admissions was 3.2022, with a standard deviation of 2.0522, indicating a considerable amount of variability in the admission data. The median value was calculated as 3.0000, indicating close alignment between the middle value in the distribution of admissions and the mean. Furthermore, the observed skewness of 0.8611 suggests a slight rightward skew in the distribution, indicating a relatively higher frequency of OVC admissions in the later periods. The findings also revealed that the pseudo-additive model was the most appropriate for the series, with the model-fitted trend equation given as 𝑋𝑡 = 1.23932 − 0.05375𝑡, indicating a decreasing linear trend. The study also identified a seasonal pattern, with the highest incidence of admission into orphanage homes occurring during the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year.