ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT DYNAMICS IN BIDA ENVIRONS, NIGER STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Drought is a weather related natural disaster. It cause may be due to insufficient rainfall, or prolong dry spells and or lack of rainfall. Crop production in Bida environs is rain fed and it is characterized by drought incidences, the attributes which is reducing the Farmers’ zeal for crops farming because of the resultant wastage of capital. The Study analyzed Drought dynamics in Bida environs. A data set of 51 years (1965-2015) of monthly rainfall, and two types of comparable drought index; the Rainfall Anomaly index (RAI) and Standardized Precipitation Anomaly taking the average as normal were used to investigate the fluctuating pattern and intensity of drought. Result shows that drought occurrences of the area are highly variable from year to year. The RAI shows that there was drought of varying degrees in 21 years out of 51 years of the studied period, with the peak value of -4.6 in 1972. The SPA also corroborated the occurrence of erratic dry spells at the planting season with the worst in the year 2015. The crux of the problems as claimed by the Farmers is their inability to determine the best time of farming input from planting to fertilizer application which also usually result to multiple inputs and thus waste of resources as a result of this fluctuations. Since Drought is beyond the Farmers control, suggestion was made that NiMet be encouraged to provide timely and accurate weather and drought forecast on her part, while farmers be informed through all effective means, accept and plan their crop production activities with it on their own part to reduce risk and loss due to this natural event of potential hazard.