Estimation of the Expected Period of Acquired Tuberculosis to Become a Chronic Tuberculosis

Abstract

In order to assess hazards pose by chronic tuberculosis, a table similar to a life table is prepared to estimate the expected period of the acquired tuberculosis to become chronic tuberculosis. This is ailment attributable to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Confidence bounds for the estimate were also derived. An example is given using a data set from University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital, Ilorin in Kwara State, Nigeria where some tuberculosis patients were monitored over some years. The available data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 15, Chicago Inc., IL, and USA. The results show that for the potential patient(s), the expected period of developing the Tuberculosis is 6.796 years before the infection become chronic infection (Tuberculosis). Therefore, 95% confidence interval for the estimated period was found to be between 6.7763 and 6.8157. Hence, it is recommended that health policy maker should formulate policies that curb the pandemic of the disease.