APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY IN ANALYSING URBAN DENSIFICATION AND HOUSING MARKET IN BIDA, NIGERIA

Abstract

Urban densification is as a result of increase in the level of urbanisation of a limited area which causes challenges in the housing affordability due to the increase in price of houses, high rental values, high demand and shortage in supply to meet the need of the urban residence. This study examines urban densification as an element of urban growth and how it can provide extra spatial information in explaining the variance of housing market of Bida with specific emphasis on its prevailing submarkets. Census sampling techniques was adopted in sampling all 31,410 buildings, 46,489 buildings and 47,394 buildings for the years 2008, 2013 and 2018 respectively and also 138 houses managed by the 3 registered estate firms in Bida. Data were collected using Google Earth to capture satellite imageries for the years 2008, 2013 and 2018 using maximum resolutions while handheld GPS was used to take coordinates of rental houses managed by registered estate surveyors and valuers. Onscreen digitization was conducted where Point Density spatial analysis and Ordinary Kriging (OK) was used to analyse residential density and rental prices respectively, while machine learning approach using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was adopted to analyse and forecast residential density and housing prices with the aid of Map Algebra tool in ArcGIS. It was found out amongst others that the pattern of densification process is in line with urban economic theory for monocentric open cities and that OK model disconfirmed Alonso’s monocentric theory. The ANN model revealed that residential densities increase shall continue along the urban – rural gradient thereby causing a transition of open spaces and low density areas in to medium and high density areas in the coming years maintaining its monocentricity, while rental prices of housing apartments shall continue to decreases with decreasing distance to the city centre. It was therefore recommended amongst others that there is the need for rational densification for urban development in order check the increasing residential density that reduces green and open spaces.