A Stochastic Model for Rice Yields Forecast

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa) is one of most consumed food crops in Nigeria and in around the word. Demand for rice has been increasing at fast rate in Nigeria due to population growth and the banning of its importation in to the country has further led to its shortage in supply. This research is poised to provide necessary information to the government to boost rice production in the country. In view of this, a stochastic mathematical model that makes forecast of rice yields with respect to major climatic elements (Rainfall and Temperature) has been developed and implemented in Niger State. The relevant data used in this research were collected from the Niger state Bureau of statistics over a period of 16years (2001-2016). Validity test for the model was conducted which indicates 80% accuracy, this shows that the model is reliable and dependable. Both the validity test and the future forecast of the model showed prevalence of high rice yields, this shows that Niger State is a better place for rice farming. Therefore, results from the study is an important information to Federal Government to boost local rice production in the country.