A Deterministic Compartmental Model of Tuberculosis Control Strategy Adopted by the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme in Nigeria

Abstract

In 1989 National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme was established to provide framework for the control of Tuberculosis and Leprosy in Nigeria. This was followed by the official launching in 1991 and adoption of Directly Observed Treatment Strategy for the control of Tuberculosis in Nigeria in 1993. In 2006 Tuberculosis was declared an emergency in Nigeria and the Stop Tuberculosis strategy for the control of Tuberculosis in Nigeria was adopted to reduce the prevalence of Tuberculosis to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems in the country. In this work we present a deterministic model interpretation of method of control adopted by National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Program. We established the Disease free and the endemic equilibrium states and carried out the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium state. We also carried out numerical simulations of the model using maple mathematical software to have an insight into the dynamics of the model. We found out that the disease free equilibrium state is stable. The numerical simulations showed that it will be very difficult to completely eradicate Tuberculosis from Nigeria using this method.