Development of a New Average Spreading Rate Regression Model for Crude Oil During Oil Spill

Abstract

The target of this study was to develop a new average spreading rate regression model capable of predicting rate of flow of crude oil spills on Nigerian waters. The major factors responsible for spreading rate of crude oil on waters were considered, namely surface tension, viscosity, Reid vapour pressure and specific capacity/American Petroleum Institute degree (oAPI), all at specified temperatures, fourteen different Nigerian crude oils were collected and used to develop the new model. The spreading rate of each crude oil was determined by artificially spilling them on laboratory calm/stagnant water in a rectangular tank and their average were also computed. These averages were used to develop a regression model equation for a new average spreading rate. Results obtained from the model showed that an average spreading rate was 4.53cm/sec and the predictive regression model is y= 3.694+0.003x1 – 0.181x2 – 0.096x3 +1.279x4+0.009x5-0.001x6. however, wind drift current and waves are also secondary factors for determining spreading rate of oil on waters but in this work, they were considered to be constant.