Rainfall Trend Analysis and its Implication on Flood in Suleja, Nigeria.

Abstract

Rainfall distribution pattern has been a major concern to Climatologists, Penologists, Agriculturist hydrologist and even to the ordinary man in the street. Rainfall is a critical index of climatological investigation and has major impacts on flora and fauna, as well as ecological setting and water resources management of any area. The study is in this direction as it examines the trend in the rainfall over a period of 10years. Data obtained from 60 local dwellers with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Linear Regression model was used to analyze the trend in rainfall. A Digital Elevation Model was used for terrain analysis while findings from the fieldwork were used to ground- truth the results from the analysis of the image. Result shows that there was an uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the period of years that was considered. The result shows that the study area experiences little changes in rainfall patterns and the occurrence of flood was so minimized but from year 2012 it rises to over 800mm and dropped down in the next two years (2013-2014). The year 2015 and 2016 sixteen experience the highest annual rainfall, it was the same year that the study area experienced the worst occurrence of flooding that claimed about 9 lives and destroyed several buildings and damaged several properties. From 2017 to 2018 there was a downslope experience which indicates low annual rainfall. The terrain analysis shows that the area is vulnerable to flood coupled with the poor drainage system in the vulnerable areas. Result also shows that the local dwellers adopted some cultural method in coping with the flood incidence before and after such as embankments, clearing of refuse and blockages and building with fortified materials.