Trend Analysis of Temperature in Gombe State Using Mann Kendall Trend Test

Abstract

This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature in Gombe State using Mann-Kendall trend test. The annual average of Maximum and Minimum Temperature data was obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Gombe State. In order to determine the nature of the trend and significance level, Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s estimate were employed. From this study, it was found out that Maximum and Average temperature exhibit positive Kendall’s Z value which indicates an upward trend and also imply increasing trend over time. The Test statistic ( ) for maximum and average temperatures are 4.38 and 4.43 respectively. This indicates that there is a significant increase in the trend at 5% level of significance since (p-values (0.0001) <0.05). However, the Z value for minimum temperature (1.59) shows a positive trend but not significant at 5% significant level since the p-value is greater than the significant level (p-value (0.107)>0.05). It can be inferred from both Mann- Kendall and Sen’s Slope that there is the tendency of increment in temperature. This could be due to the impact of climate change and can lead to weather extremes in the study area. It is therefore recommended that the variability of temperature should be monitored in order to minimize its effects on human activities.