Mathematical model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with optimal control

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this work, we proposed a mathematical model of COVID-19. We carried out the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator which is the basic reproduction number () of this model, stability analysis of COVID-19 free equilibrium (CFE) and Endemic equilibrium (EE) using Lyaponuv function are considered. We extended the basic model into optimal control system by incorporating three control strategies. These are; use of face-mask and hand sanitizer along with social distancing; treatment of COVID-19 patients and active screening with testing and the third control is prevention against recurrence and reinfection of humans who have recovered from COVID-19. Daily data given by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) in Nigeria is used for simulation of the proposed COVID-19 model to see the effects of the control measures. The biological interpretation of this findings is that, COVID-19 can be effectively managed or eliminated in Nigeria if the control measures implemented are capable of taking or sustaining the basic reproductive number to a value below unity. If the three control strategies are well managed by the government namely; NCDC, Presidential Task Force (PTF) and Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) or policymakers, then COVID-19 in Nigeria will be eradicated.

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Keywords

COVID-19, Model-fitting, Basic reproduction number, Global stability, Optimal control

Citation

A. I. Abioye, O. J. Peter, H. A. Ogunseye, F. A. Oguntolu, K. Oshinubi, A. A. Ibrahim & I. Khan. (2021). Mathematical model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with optimal control. Results in Physics, 28, 104598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104598

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