Mathematical model of measles transmission dynamics using real data from Nigeria

dc.contributor.authorOlumuyiwa James Peter
dc.contributor.authorMayowa M. Ojo
dc.contributor.authorRatchada Viriyapong
dc.contributor.authorFestus Abiodun Oguntolu
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-26T09:41:32Z
dc.date.issued2022-05-25
dc.description.abstractMeasles is a highly contagious and life-threatening disease caused by a virus called morbillivirus, despite the availability of a safe and cost-effective vaccine, it remains a leading cause of death, especially in children. Measles spreads easily from person to person via infected people's coughs and sneezes. It can also be transmitted through direct contact with the mouth or contaminated surfaces. To have a better knowledge of measles epidemiology in Nigeria, we develop a deterministic mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of the disease in the population. The boundary of the model solution is performed, both equilibrium points are calculated, and the basic reproduction number ℛ0 is determined. We have proved that when ℛ0<1, the disease-free equilibrium point is both locally and globally stable. When ℛ0>1, the endemic equilibrium point exists and is stable if it satisfies Routh–Hurwitz criteria. We demonstrate the model's effectiveness by using a real-life application of the disease spread in Nigeria. We fit the proposed model using available data from Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) from January to December 2020 to obtain the best fit, this help us to determine the accuracy of the proposed model's representation to the real-world data. We investigate the impact of vaccination rate and hospitalization of infected individuals on the dynamics of measles in the population. The result shows that the combined control strategies reduce the peak of infection faster than the single control strategy.
dc.identifier.citationO. J. Peter, M. M. Ojo, R. Viriyapong & F. A. Oguntolu. (2022). Mathematical model of measles transmission dynamics using real data from Nigeria. Journal of Difference Equations and Applications, 28(6). 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/10236198.2022.2079411
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/10236198.2022.2079411
dc.identifier.issn1023-6198
dc.identifier.issn1563-5120
dc.identifier.urihttp://repository.futminna.edu.ng:4000/handle/123456789/2039
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInforma UK Limited
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Difference Equations and Applications
dc.subjectMeasles
dc.subjectbasic reproduction number
dc.subjectstability analysis
dc.subjectmodel fitting
dc.subjectnumerical simulation
dc.titleMathematical model of measles transmission dynamics using real data from Nigeria
dc.typejournal-article
oaire.citation.issue6
oaire.citation.volume28

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