Does the mode of financing the budget deficit matter for inflation in Nigeria

Abstract

Purpose The motivation for this study is to determine whether inflation in Nigeria is driven by the Central Bank’s direct advances and Treasury bills/bonds as modes of financing the budget deficit. Hence, it examines whether the method of deficit financing significantly impacts inflation in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach Based on the nature of the study and the availability of data in Nigeria, this study employs the ARDL bound test estimation technique to analyse annual time-series data from 1981 to 2021. Findings The ARDL bounds test approach to co-integration revealed a long-run co-integrating relationship between Central Bank advances, Treasury bills/bonds, and inflation in Nigeria. Furthermore, the ARDL results provide evidence of a negative and significant relationship between bonds and inflation in both the short and long run. In contrast, Central Bank advances exhibit a statistically significant direct effect on inflation in the short run and an indirect effect in the long run. Research limitations/implications The study focuses solely on Nigeria, limiting the applicability of the findings to other nations with differing economic structures or fiscal policies. Secondly, while the ARDL bounds testing approach is appropriate for the research context, it may not capture complex nonlinear relationships or structural breaks within the dataset. Lastly, the exclusion of additional potential determinants of inflation, such as external shocks, geopolitical factors, or exchange rate dynamics, could restrict the comprehensiveness of the analysis. Practical implications This study provides empirical evidence supporting the view that, to achieve lower inflation in Nigeria, policymakers should prioritize using bonds to finance the deficit budget, as they have been shown to have a short-and long-term deflationary effect on the economy. Originality/value The novelty of this study lies in categorizing deficit budget financing (Central Bank advances and Treasury bills) and identifying which has the greatest impact on inflation in Nigeria.