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Author: search.filters.author.F.A. OguntoluStart date: 2023

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    Modeling prevalence of meningitis control strategies through evaluating with available data on meningitis cases reported in Nigeria
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2025-05-14) O.J. Peter; F.A. Oguntolu; N. Nyerere; A. El-Mesady
    Meningitis is a major public health concern, especially in developing nations, due to its devastating consequences for human health. Although modeling studies have examined disease transmission dynamics, little attention has been paid to how control strategies affect the behavior of different population groups, including carriers, symptomatic individuals, hospitalized patients, and those in intensive care. This study proposes a computational framework that compares the effectiveness of vaccination of people at risk of the disease versus treating symptomatic infected persons. The basic reproduction number is used to evaluate the equilibrium points. Assess the precision of the proposed model’s illustration to data. We fit the meningitis model using the information at our disposal on meningitis cases reported in Nigeria from the first week of January to the last week of December 2023; this was obtained from the Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC) database. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using a normalized forward sensitivity index to see which parameters had significant effects on the effective reproduction number. The results of both analytical techniques and numerical simulations reveal that recruitment rate, vaccination, progression from carrier to symptomatic stages, and disease-induced death all significantly reduce the incidence and prevalence of meningitis in the community. The study findings could be used to inform decisions about meningitis control initiatives.
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    Modelling the impacts of media campaign and double dose vaccination in controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria
    (Elsevier BV, 2023-10) N.I. Akinwande; S.A. Somma; R.O. Olayiwola; T.T. Ashezua; R.I. Gweryina; F.A. Oguntolu; O.N. Abdurahman; F.S. Kaduna; T.P. Adajime; F.A. Kuta; S. Abdulrahman; A.I. Enagi; G.A. Bolarin; M.D. Shehu; A. Usman
    Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a lethal disease that poses public health challenge in both developed and developing countries of the world. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical use of COVID-19 vaccines and non-compliance to COVID-19 health protocols, this study presents a deterministic model with an optimal control problem for assessing the community-level impact of media campaign and double-dose vaccination on the transmission and control of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the model shows that, using the Lyapunov function theory and the theory of centre manifold, the dynamics of the model is determined essentially by the control reproduction number (Rmv). Consequently, the model undergoes the phenomenon of forward bifurcation in the absence of the double dose vaccination effects, where the global disease-free equilibrium is obtained whenever Rmv≤1. Numerical simulations of the model using data relevant to the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nigeria, show that, certain values of the basic reproduction number ((R0≥7)) may not prevent the spread of the pandemic even if 100% media compliance is achieved. Nevertheless, with assumed 75% (at R0=4)) media efficacy of double dose vaccination, the community herd immunity to the disease can be attained. Furthermore, Pontryagin's maximum principle was used for the analysis of the optimized model by which necessary conditions for optimal controls were obtained. In addition, the optimal simulation results reveal that, for situations where the cost of implementing the controls (media campaign and double dose vaccination) considered in this study is low, allocating resources to media campaign-only strategy is more effective than allocating them to a first-dose vaccination strategy. More so, as expected, the combined media campaign-double dose vaccination strategy yields a higher population-level impact than the media campaign-only strategy, double-dose vaccination strategy or media campaign-first dose vaccination strategy.