School of Physical Sciences (SPS)
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School of Physical Sciences (SPS)
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Item Exploring the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis through a mathematical model and analysis with Holling type II treatment functions(Iranian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Optimization, 2025-06) F. A. Oguntolu; O. J. Peter; B. I. Omede; T. A. Ayoola; G. B. BalogunThis paper presents a robust deterministic mathematical model incorporat-ing Holling type II treatment functions to comprehensively investigate the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. Through qualitative analysis, the model demonstrates the occurrence of backward bifurcation when the basic re-production number is less than one. Moreover, numerical simulations are employed to illustrate and validate key analytical findings. These simula-tion results emphasize the significance of accessible medical resources and the efficacy of prophylactic drugs in eradicating Lymphatic filariasis. The findings show that, enhancing medical resource availability and implement-ing effective treatment strategies in rural areas and regions vulnerable to Lymphatic filariasis is crucial for combating the transmission and control of this disease.Item Time-delayed modelling of the COVID-19 dynamics with a convex incidence rate(Elsevier BV, 2022) Oluwatosin Babasola; Oshinubi Kayode; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Faithful Chiagoziem Onwuegbuche; Festus Abiodun OguntoluCOVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis which has an enormous impact on the world population and economy. Many scientists and researchers have combined efforts to develop an approach to tackle this crisis and as a result, researchers have developed several approaches for understanding the COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the way of mitigating its effect. The implementation of a mathematical model has proven helpful in further understanding the behaviour which has helped the policymaker in adopting the best policy necessary for reducing the spread. Most models are based on a system of equations which assume an instantaneous change in the transmission dynamics. However, it is believed that SARS-COV-2 have an incubation period before the tendency of transmission. Therefore, to capture the dynamics adequately, there would be a need for the inclusion of delay parameters which will account for the delay before an exposed individual could become infected. Hence, in this paper, we investigate the SEIR epidemic model with a convex incidence rate incorporated with a time delay. We first discussed the epidemic model as a form of a classical ordinary differential equation and then the inclusion of a delay to represent the period in which the susceptible and exposed individuals became infectious. Secondly, we identify the disease-free together with the endemic equilibrium state and examine their stability by adopting the delay differential equation stability theory. Thereafter, we carried out numerical simulations with suitable parameters choice to illustrate the theoretical result of the system and for a better understanding of the model dynamics. We also vary the length of the delay to illustrate the changes in the model as the delay parameters change which enables us to further gain an insight into the effect of the included delay in a dynamical system. The result confirms that the inclusion of delay destabilises the system and it forces the system to exhibit an oscillatory behaviour which leads to a periodic solution and it further helps us to gain more insight into the transmission dynamics of the disease and strategy to reduce the risk of infection.Item Mathematical analysis on the vertical and horizontal transmission dynamics of HIV and Zika virus co-infection(Elsevier BV, 2024-03) Benjamin Idoko Omede; Bolarinwa Bolaji; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Abdullahi A. Ibrahim; Festus Abiodun OguntoluThe co-infection of HIV and Zika virus (ZIKV) poses a complex and understudied health challenge, requiring a comprehensive investigation into the synergistic effects, potential complications, and the impact on affected individuals. Consequently, This paper introduces a novel deterministic mathematical model that examines the transmission dynamics of HIV and Zika virus co-infection, considering both vertical and horizontal transmission. The analysis begins with two sub-models: one for HIV-only and another for ZIKV-only. Qualitative examination indicates that the HIV only sub-model achieves a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is below unity. In contrast, the ZIKV only sub-model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon, where both stable disease-free and stable endemic equilibria co-exist when the associated reproduction number of the ZIKV only sub-model is less than unity. Thus, the backward bifurcation property makes effective control of ZIKV infection in the population difficulty when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It is shown, using the center manifold theory that the full HIV-ZIKV co-infection model undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We carried out the sensitivity analysis of the HIV and ZIKV basic reproduction numbers to determine the parameters that positively influence the spread of the two diseases. It is also revealed that an increase in HIV infection in the population will positively influence the transmission of ZIKV. We validated the ZIKV only sub-model by fitting the ZIKV only sub-model to the confirmed cases of ZIKV data in Brazil. The outcome of the numerical simulations of HIV-ZIKV co-infection model reveals that the two diseases co-exist when their basic reproduction number surpasses one. Furthermore, increasing HIV treatment rate significantly reduces the burden of co-infection with the Zika virus.Item Mathematical Modeling on the Transmission Dynamics of Diphtheria with Optimal Control Strategies(Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo, 2025-03-29) Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Benjamin Idoko Omede; Ghaniyyat Bolanle Balogun; Aminat Olabisi Ajiboye; Hasan S. PanigoroDiphtheria is an acute bacterial infection caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, characterized by the formation of a pseudo-membrane in the throat, which can lead to airway obstruction and systemic complications. Despite the availability of effective vaccines, diphtheria remains a significant public health concern in many regions, particularly in areas with low immunization coverage. In this study, we formulated and rigorously analyzed a deter ministic epidemiological mathematical model to gain insight into the transmission dynamics of Diphtheria infection, incorporating the concentration of Corynebacterium Diphtheriae in the environment. The analysis of the model begins with the computation of the basic reproduction number and the examination of the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. An in-depth analysis of the model reveals that the model undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. This characteristic poses significant hurdles in effectively controlling Diph theria infection within the population. However, under the assumption of no re-infection of Diphtheria infection after recovery, the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction num ber is less than one. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number was carried out in order to determine the impact of each of the model basic parameters that contribute to the transmission of the disease. Utilizing the optimal control theory to effectively curb the spread of Diphtheria, We introduced two time dependent control measures, to mitigate the spread of Diphtheria. These time dependent control measures represent preventive actions, such as public enlightenment campaign to sensitize and educate the general public on the dynamics of Diph theria and proper personal hygiene which includes regular washing of hands to prevent susceptible individuals from acquiring Diphtheria, and environmental sanitation practices such as cleaning of surfaces and door handle to reduced the concentration of Corynebacterium diphtheriae in the environment. The results from the numerical simulations reveal that Diphtheria infection can successfully be controlled and mitigated within the population if we can increase the vaccination rate and the decay rate of Corynebacterium Diphtheriae in the environment, as well as properly and effectively implementing these optimal control measures simultaneously.Item Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of a Mathematical Modeling of Measles Incorporating Vitamin a Supplement(Sule Lamido University Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST), 2021-01-20) Somma, Samuel Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Gana, P.; Ogwumu, O. D.; Ashezua, T. T.; Eguda, F. YMeasles is transmissible disease that is common among children. The death caused by measles among children of five years and below is alarming in spite of the safe and effective vaccine. It has been discovered that Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) in children increases their chances of measles infection. In this paper, the mathematical model of measles incorporating Vitamin A supplement as treatment was formulated and analyzed. The equilibrium points are obtained and analyzed for stability. Bifurcation and sensitivity analyses were carried out to gain further insight into the spread and control of measles. The stability analysis revealed that Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is stable if R0 1. The bifurcation analysis revealed forward bifurcation while the sensitivity analysis shows the most sensitive parameters of the model that are responsible for the spread and control of the diseases. The effect of sensitive parameters on Basic Reproduction Number, 0 R were presented graphically. Vaccination, recovery and Vitamin A supplement rates have been shown from the graphical presentation as the important parameter that will eradicate the measles from the population while contact and loss of immunity rates have shown that measles will persist in the population. People should be sensitized on the danger of living with infected persons. Government should do more in routine immunization and administration of Vitamin A Supplement.Item Modelling the Impacts of Media Campaign and Double Dose Vaccination in Controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria(Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2023-01-15) Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Olayiwola, R. O.; Ashezua, T. T.; Gweryina, R. I.; Oguntolu, F. A.Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a lethal disease that poses public health challenge in both developed and developing countries of the world. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical use of COVID-19 vaccines and noncompliance to COVID-19 health protocols, this study presents a deterministic model with an optimal control problem for assessing the community-level impact of media campaign and double-dose vaccination on the transmission and control of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the model shows that, using the Lyapunov function theory and the theory of centre manifold, the dynamics of the model is determined essentially by the control reproduction number (𝑅𝑚𝑣). Consequently, the model undergoes the phenomenon of forward bifurcation in the absence of the double dose vaccination effects, where the global disease-free equilibrium is obtained whenever 𝑅𝑚𝑣 ≤ 1. Numerical simulations of the model using data relevant to the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nigeria, show that, certain values of the basic reproduction number ((𝑅0 ≥ 7)) may not prevent the spread of the pandemic even if 100% media compliance is achieved. Nevertheless, with assumed 75% (at 𝑅0 = 4)) media efficacy of double dose vaccination, the community herd immunity to the disease can be attained. Furthermore, Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used for the analysis of the optimized model by which necessary conditions for optimal controls were obtained. In addition, the optimal simulation results reveal that, for situations where the cost of implementing the controls (media campaign and double dose vaccination) considered in this study is low, allocating resources to media campaign-only strategy is more effective than allocating them to a firstdose vaccination strategy. More so, as expected, the combined media campaign-double dose vaccination strategy yields a higher population-level impact than the media campaign-only strategy, double-dose vaccination strategy or media campaign-first dose vaccination strategy.Item STABILITY AND BIFURCATION ANALYSIS OF ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF YELLOW FEVER INCORPORATING SECONDARY HOST(Transactions of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics, 2018-03-10) Somma, Samuel Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Jiya, M.; Abdulrahman, S.; Ogwumu, O. D.In this paper we used the Centre Manifold theorem to analyzed the local stability of Endemic Equilibrium (EE). We obtained the endemic equilibrium point in terms of forces of infection and use it to analyze for the bifurcation of the model. We carried out the bifurcation analysis of the model with four forces of infection which resulted into bifurcation diagram. The forces of infection of vector-primary host and vector secondary host transmissions were plotted against basic reproduction number. The bifurcation diagram revealed that the model exhibit forward bifurcation.Item Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of a Mathematical Modeling of Measles Incorporating Vitamin A Supplement(Sule Lamido University Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST), 2021-01-20) Somma, Samul Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Gana, P.; Ogwumu, O. D.; Ashezua, T. T.; Eguda, F. Y.Measles is transmissible disease that is common among children. The death caused by measles among children of five years and below is alarming in spite of the safe and effective vaccine. It has been discovered that Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) in children increases their chances of measles infection. In this paper, the mathematical model of measles incorporating Vitamin A supplement as treatment was formulated and analyzed. The equilibrium points are obtained and analyzed for stability. Bifurcation and sensitivity analyses were carried out to gain further insight into the spread and control of measles. The stability analysis revealed that Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is stable if Reproduction Number, 0 R 0 1 . The bifurcation analysis revealed forward bifurcation while the sensitivity analysis shows the most sensitive parameters of the model that are responsible for the spread and control of the diseases. The effect of sensitive parameters on Basic R were presented graphically. Vaccination, recovery and Vitamin A supplement rates have been shown from the graphical presentation as the important parameter that will eradicate the measles from the population while contact and loss of immunity rates have shown that measles will persist in the population. People should be sensitized on the danger of living with infected persons. Government should do more in routine immunization and administration of Vitamin A Supplement.Item Bifurcation Analysis on the Mathematical Model of Measles Disease Dynamics(Universal Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2013-12-12) Abubakar, Samuel; Akinwande, N. I.; Abdulrahman, S.; Oguntolu, F. A.In this paper we proposed a Mathematical model of Measles disease dynamics. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) state, Endemic Equilibrium (EE) states and the characteristic equation of the model were obtained. The condition for the stability of the Disease Free equilibrium state was obtained. We analyze the bifurcation of the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) and the result of the analysis was presented in a tabular form.Item COA-SOWUNMI'S LEMMA AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF EQUILIBRIUM STATES OF THE NON-LINEAR AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATION MODEL(International Journal of Mathematics and Physical Sciences Research, 0205-04-10) Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel AbuAbstract: In this work, we present a result in the form of a lemma which we name COA-Sowunmi’s Lemma, its proof and application to the stability analysis of the transcendental characteristics equation arising from the perturbation of the steady state of the non-linear age-structured population model of Gurtin and MacCamy [11]. Necessary condition for the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium state of the model is obtained in the form of constrained inequality on the vital parameters of the model. The result obtained is then compared with that of an earlier work by the [4].