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Author: search.filters.author.Musa Abdullahi SakankoSubject: search.filters.subject.ARDL

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    Oil Price and Stock Prices Volatility Transmission in Nigeria
    (West African Economic Review, 2019) Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji; Kamaldeen Ajala; Musa Abdullahi Sakanko
    The study investigates the relationship among oil price (OP), oil price volatility (OPV) and stock price volatility (SPV) in Nigeria, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkepohl (TYDL) test, and Breitung-Candelon Frequency Domain Causality Test. The study shows that OP causes the SPV and OPV in a one-way direction in the long run. However, there was evidence of bi-directional relationship with SPV in the medium-run. It also shows that the OPV and SPV positively impact OP in the short and long run. Overall, the study found that there is a greater tendency that oil price adjusts back to its long-run equilibrium when affected by stock market prices. Therefore, it recommends that policymakers consider the movement in oil price and stock price in shaping the capital market's operation and ensuring the proceeds from increased oil prices are utilised maximally for economic revitalisation in Nigeria.
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    OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (BOP): EVIDENCE OF NIGERIA
    (Bingham Journal of Economics Allied Studies (BJEAS), 2019) Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; James Obilikwu; Joseph David
    This study examines the effect of oil price volatility on Nigerian Balance of Payment (BOP) from 1980 to 2017, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing technique, and the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-type model (EGARCH-M) to examine the nature and behaviour of Nigeria’s oil (Bonny light) price volatility. The results from the ARCH-type model (EGARCH-M(1,1)) indicate that the Nigeria’s oil price volatility is not mean reverting, with negative shocks generating more impact than positive shocks, which is determined negatively by global oil supply and negatively by world oil demand. Equally, while the result of the ARDL bound test confirms the presence of co-integrating (long-run) relation between Balance of Payment and oil price volatility (and oil export and economic growth), the result from the ARDL model indicates the presence of significant negative relationship between oil price volatility and Balance of Payments in Nigeria, thus indicating the negative effect (deficit) of oil price volatility on Nigeria’s BOP, due to the overreliance and dependence of the economy on oil export. The study therefore recommends the diversification of Nigeria’s export basket, for enhanced participation of non-oil products, coupled with the adoption of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), so as to enhance the productivity and performance of the country’s oil and gas industry, and making it internationally competitive
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    Financial inclusion and women participation in gainful employment: an empirical analysis of Nigeria
    (Indonesian Journal of Islamic Economics Research, 2020) Musa Abdullahi Sakanko
    The paper examines the effect of financial inclusion on women participation in gainful employment in Nigeria for the period 1980 – 2018, employing the ARDL method. Both in the short run and long-run, the results indicated a positive relationship between financial inclusion and women’s participation in gainful employment. Thus, the paper recommends that the government ensure that financial inclusion barriers are reduced or removed. Reducing or removing will increase women’s participation in economic activities since financial inclusion measures are adjudged as convenient, safe, and prompt. Measures that will enhance private deposit and expansion of more commercial’s banks branch in rural areas to improve women’s access to financial services that discourage the use of informal financial services should be encouraged.
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    Does the mode of financing the budget deficit matter for inflation in Nigeria
    (African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 2025) Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Kanang Amos Akims; Stephen Salawu Gana
    Purpose The motivation for this study is to determine whether inflation in Nigeria is driven by the Central Bank’s direct advances and Treasury bills/bonds as modes of financing the budget deficit. Hence, it examines whether the method of deficit financing significantly impacts inflation in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach Based on the nature of the study and the availability of data in Nigeria, this study employs the ARDL bound test estimation technique to analyse annual time-series data from 1981 to 2021. Findings The ARDL bounds test approach to co-integration revealed a long-run co-integrating relationship between Central Bank advances, Treasury bills/bonds, and inflation in Nigeria. Furthermore, the ARDL results provide evidence of a negative and significant relationship between bonds and inflation in both the short and long run. In contrast, Central Bank advances exhibit a statistically significant direct effect on inflation in the short run and an indirect effect in the long run. Research limitations/implications The study focuses solely on Nigeria, limiting the applicability of the findings to other nations with differing economic structures or fiscal policies. Secondly, while the ARDL bounds testing approach is appropriate for the research context, it may not capture complex nonlinear relationships or structural breaks within the dataset. Lastly, the exclusion of additional potential determinants of inflation, such as external shocks, geopolitical factors, or exchange rate dynamics, could restrict the comprehensiveness of the analysis. Practical implications This study provides empirical evidence supporting the view that, to achieve lower inflation in Nigeria, policymakers should prioritize using bonds to finance the deficit budget, as they have been shown to have a short-and long-term deflationary effect on the economy. Originality/value The novelty of this study lies in categorizing deficit budget financing (Central Bank advances and Treasury bills) and identifying which has the greatest impact on inflation in Nigeria.
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    Do Tax Policies in Nigeria Have Similar Implications for the Manufacturing Sector Output?
    (Etikonomi, 2022) Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Jeremiah Nshe Manomi; Abubakar Ijoko; Usman Abdulkareem Audu
    The study examines whether tax policies in Nigeria have similar implications on the manufacturing sector’s output during the 1994Q1-2020Q4 period using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The bounds testing result suggests the presence of cointegration between tax policies and the manufacturing sector output. Further, the estimation results demonstrate that company income tax (CIT) and import tax are positively related to manufacturing sector output. In contrast, value-added tax (VAT) has a negative effect on the manufacturing sector output, both in the short- and longterm. In addition, the results of the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional causal relationship running from tax policies to the manufacturing sector output and not vice versa. Thus, policies and measures are recommended to prioritize the CIT and import tax, review the assortment in the VAT, and ensure accountability and transparency in the tax system.