Mathematics

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Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of a Mathematical Modeling of Measles Incorporating Vitamin a Supplement
(Sule Lamido University Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST), 2021-01-20) Somma, Samuel Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Gana, P.; Ogwumu, O. D.; Ashezua, T. T.; Eguda, F. Y
Measles is transmissible disease that is common among children. The death caused by measles among children of five years and below is alarming in spite of the safe and effective vaccine. It has been discovered that Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) in children increases their chances of measles infection. In this paper, the mathematical model of measles incorporating Vitamin A supplement as treatment was formulated and analyzed. The equilibrium points are obtained and analyzed for stability. Bifurcation and sensitivity analyses were carried out to gain further insight into the spread and control of measles. The stability analysis revealed that Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is stable if R0  1. The bifurcation analysis revealed forward bifurcation while the sensitivity analysis shows the most sensitive parameters of the model that are responsible for the spread and control of the diseases. The effect of sensitive parameters on Basic Reproduction Number, 0 R were presented graphically. Vaccination, recovery and Vitamin A supplement rates have been shown from the graphical presentation as the important parameter that will eradicate the measles from the population while contact and loss of immunity rates have shown that measles will persist in the population. People should be sensitized on the danger of living with infected persons. Government should do more in routine immunization and administration of Vitamin A Supplement.
Modelling the Impacts of Media Campaign and Double Dose Vaccination in Controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria
(Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2023-01-15) Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Olayiwola, R. O.; Ashezua, T. T.; Gweryina, R. I.; Oguntolu, F. A.
Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a lethal disease that poses public health challenge in both developed and developing countries of the world. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical use of COVID-19 vaccines and noncompliance to COVID-19 health protocols, this study presents a deterministic model with an optimal control problem for assessing the community-level impact of media campaign and double-dose vaccination on the transmission and control of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the model shows that, using the Lyapunov function theory and the theory of centre manifold, the dynamics of the model is determined essentially by the control reproduction number (𝑅𝑚𝑣). Consequently, the model undergoes the phenomenon of forward bifurcation in the absence of the double dose vaccination effects, where the global disease-free equilibrium is obtained whenever 𝑅𝑚𝑣 ≤ 1. Numerical simulations of the model using data relevant to the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nigeria, show that, certain values of the basic reproduction number ((𝑅0 ≥ 7)) may not prevent the spread of the pandemic even if 100% media compliance is achieved. Nevertheless, with assumed 75% (at 𝑅0 = 4)) media efficacy of double dose vaccination, the community herd immunity to the disease can be attained. Furthermore, Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used for the analysis of the optimized model by which necessary conditions for optimal controls were obtained. In addition, the optimal simulation results reveal that, for situations where the cost of implementing the controls (media campaign and double dose vaccination) considered in this study is low, allocating resources to media campaign-only strategy is more effective than allocating them to a firstdose vaccination strategy. More so, as expected, the combined media campaign-double dose vaccination strategy yields a higher population-level impact than the media campaign-only strategy, double-dose vaccination strategy or media campaign-first dose vaccination strategy.
Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of a Mathematical Modeling of Measles Incorporating Vitamin A Supplement
(Sule Lamido University Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST), 2021-01-20) Somma, Samul Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Gana, P.; Ogwumu, O. D.; Ashezua, T. T.; Eguda, F. Y.
Measles is transmissible disease that is common among children. The death caused by measles among children of five years and below is alarming in spite of the safe and effective vaccine. It has been discovered that Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) in children increases their chances of measles infection. In this paper, the mathematical model of measles incorporating Vitamin A supplement as treatment was formulated and analyzed. The equilibrium points are obtained and analyzed for stability. Bifurcation and sensitivity analyses were carried out to gain further insight into the spread and control of measles. The stability analysis revealed that Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is stable if Reproduction Number, 0 R 0  1 . The bifurcation analysis revealed forward bifurcation while the sensitivity analysis shows the most sensitive parameters of the model that are responsible for the spread and control of the diseases. The effect of sensitive parameters on Basic R were presented graphically. Vaccination, recovery and Vitamin A supplement rates have been shown from the graphical presentation as the important parameter that will eradicate the measles from the population while contact and loss of immunity rates have shown that measles will persist in the population. People should be sensitized on the danger of living with infected persons. Government should do more in routine immunization and administration of Vitamin A Supplement.

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