Browsing by Author "Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola"

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A fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection dynamics
(Elsevier BV, 2023-12) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; Asimiyu Olalekan Oladapo
This study proposes a fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection using the Atangana–Baleanu Derivative. We explain the various stages of the diseases together in humans and mosquitoes, and we also establish the existence and uniqueness of the fractional order co-infection model solution using the fixed point theorem. We conduct the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator, the basic reproduction number R0 of this model. We investigate the global stability at the disease and endemic free equilibrium of the malaria-only, COVID-19-only, and co-infection models. We run different simulations of the fractional-order co-infection model using a two-step Lagrange interpolation polynomial approximate method with the aid of the Maple software package. The results reveal that reducing the risk of malaria and COVID-19 by taking preventive measures will reduce the risk factor for getting COVID-19 after contracting malaria and will also reduce the risk factor for getting malaria after contracting COVID-19 even to the point of extinction.
Direct and indirect transmission of typhoid fever model with optimal control
(Elsevier BV, 2021-08) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Mohammed Olanrewaju Ibrahim; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Kayode Oshinubi; Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; John Oluwasegun Lawal
In this paper, a model for direct and indirect transmission dynamics of typhoid fever with three control interventions is analyzed. Optimal control strategies are proposed to minimize both the disease burden and the intervention cost. We proved the existence and uniqueness of optimal control paths and obtained these optimal paths analytically using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We analyzed our results numerically to compare various strategies of proposed controls. It is observed that the implementation of the three controls among all strategies is most successful. Thus, we conclude that in order to reduce typhoid fever threat, all the three controls must be taken into consideration concurrently.
Fractional order of pneumococcal pneumonia infection model with Caputo Fabrizio operator
(Elsevier BV, 2021-10) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Abdullahi Yusuf; Kayode Oshinubi; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; John Oluwasegun Lawal; Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola
In this study, we present the Pneumococcal Pneumonia infection model using fractional order derivatives in the Caputo-Fabrizio sense. We use fixed-point theory to prove the existence of the solution and investigate the uniqueness of the model variables. The fractional Adams-Bashforth method is used to compute an iterative solution to the model. Finally, using the model parameter values to explain the importance of the arbitrary fractional order derivative, the numerical results are presented.
Mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of leptospirosis in human and animal population with optimal control strategies using real statistical data
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-12-07) Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Benjamin Idoko Omede; Ghaniyyat Bolanle Balogun; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola
Leptospirosis poses a significant public health challenge, with a growing incidence in both human and animal populations. The complex interplay between reservoir hosts, environmental factors, and human activities complicates efforts to curb the spread of the disease. Consequently, this paper presents a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of leptospirosis within the intertwined human and animal populations. A comprehensive examination of the model revealed that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is below one. Utilizing center manifold theory, we demonstrated that the Leptospirosis model displays forward bifurcation. Consequently, the epidemiological significance of this forward bifurcation suggests that eradicating leptospirosis from the community is feasible, provided the reproduction number remains below one. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the basic reproduction number of Leptospirosis to identify parameters that contribute positively to the disease’s spread. Furthermore, We validated our Leptospirosis model by fitting it with confirmed cases reported in Kerala State, India, covering the period from January 2021 to December 2022. This calibration process ensures the model’s accuracy and reliability in reflecting real-world epidemiological dynamics within the specified region and timeframe. In addition, we enhanced the Leptospirosis model by incorporating three time-dependent control measures. These controls encompass the vaccination of animals, environmental sanitation, and preventive actions such as using hand gloves and goggles when handling animals, as well as wearing rubber boots during periods of flooding or heavy rainfall. Results obtained from numerical simulations indicate that implementing the vaccination of animals as a standalone control strategy has no discernible effect on the number of infected humans or the bacteria population. However, when the three time-dependent control measures are combined, there is a substantial and meaningful impact on reducing the number of infected humans, infected animals, and the overall bacteria population within a relatively short timeframe. This underscores the effectiveness of the integrated approach in mitigating the spread of leptospirosis across both human and animal populations.
Modeling and optimal control of monkeypox with cost-effective strategies
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-11-22) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Chinwendu E. Madubueze; Mayowa M. Ojo; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola
In this work, we develop and analyze a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of monkeypox. We examine the local and global stability of the basic model without control variables. The outcome demonstrates that when the reproduction number , the model’s disease-free equilibrium would be locally and globally asymptotically stable. We further analyze the effective control of monkeypox in a given population by formulating and analyzing an optimal control problem. We extend the basic model to include four control variables, namely preventive strategies for transmission from rodents to humans, prevention of infection from human to human, isolation of infected individuals, and treatment of isolated individuals. We established the necessary conditions for the existence of optimal control using Pontryagin’s maximal principle. To illustrate the impact of different control combinations on the spread of monkeypox, we use the fourth-order Runge–Kutta forward–backward sweep approach to simulate the optimality system. A cost-effectiveness study is conducted to educate the public about the most cost-effective method among various control combinations. The results suggest that, of all the combinations considered in this study, implementing preventive strategies for transmission from rodents to humans is the most economical and effective among all competing strategies.
Modeling the impact of control strategies on malaria and COVID-19 coinfection: insights and implications for integrated public health interventions
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-12-27) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Emmanuel Addai; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola
This work discusses the challenge posed by the simultaneous occurrence of malaria and COVID-19 coinfection on global health systems. We propose a novel fractional order mathematical model malaria and COVID-19 coinfection. To assess the impact of control strategies on both diseases, we consider two control strategies which are, personal protection against mosquito bites ($$u_{1}(t)$$) and preventive measures for COVID-19 ($$u_{2}(t)$$). Numerical simulations demonstrate that consistent application of these measures leads to significant reductions in disease transmission. Using insecticide-treated nets and repellents during day and night effectively reduces malaria transmission, while implementing facial masks and hand hygiene controls COVID-19 spread. The most substantial impact is observed when both sets of protection measures are simultaneously adopted, highlighting the importance of integrated strategies. The study provides valuable insights into malaria and COVID-19 coinfection dynamics and emphasizes the impact of the control measures. of individual behavior and consistent adoption of personal protection measures to control both diseases. It underscores the need for integrated public health interventions to combat the dual burden of malaria and COVID-19, contributing to the development of targeted and efficient control measures.
Modeling tuberculosis dynamics with vaccination and treatment strategies
(Elsevier BV, 2025-03-19) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Dipo Aldila; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; Ghaniyyat Bolanle Balogun; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, worsened by the emergence of drug-resistant strains. The implementation of vaccination and observed treatment still becomes the most popular intervention in many countries. This study develops a mathematical model to analyze TB dynamics by considering the impact of integrated intervention vaccination and treatment strategy, and also taking into account the possibility of treatment failure and drug–resistant. The model constructed by dividing the population into six compartments: susceptible S, vaccinated V, latent L, active TB (I), drug-resistant TB Dr, and recovered R. Through a mathematical analysis of the dynamical properties of the proposed model, we demonstrated that the disease-free equilibrium point is always locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one and unstable when it exceeds one. Moreover, the endemic equilibrium point is shown to exist uniquely only when the basic reproduction number is greater than one, and once it exists, it is always locally stable. For better visualization of the stability properties, we perform continuation simulations to generate a bifurcation diagram of our model, utilizing various bifurcation parameters. The Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) approach is used to carry out sensitivity analyses to determine the most sensitive parameters to the disease control. Simulation results show that increased vaccination rates efficiently reduce the susceptible population to increase the vaccinated population, decreasing disease transmission and lowering the burden of active and drug-resistant tuberculosis. Recovery rates after second-line treatment have a substantial impact on the dynamics of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Higher recovery rates result in faster rises in the recovered population and improved disease control. The findings emphasize the need for integrated measures, such as vaccination campaigns and enhanced treatment procedures, to reduce tuberculosis incidence, minimize drug resistance, and improve public health outcomes. These findings lay the groundwork for enhancing tuberculosis control programs, especially in countries with limited resources.
Modelling and optimal control analysis of typhoid fever
(SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2021-08-19) Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Kayode Oshinubi; Mutiu Lawal Olaosebikan
In this paper, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of typhoid fever by incorporating some control strategies. In order to study the impact of these control strategies on the dynamics of typhoid fever, the model captures vaccination and educational campaign as control variables. We show that the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well positioned in a biologically feasible region in human populations. We carry out a detailed analysis to determine the basic reproduction number necessary for the control of the disease. The optimal control strategies are used to minimize the infected carriers and infected individuals and the adverse side effects of one or more of the control strategies. We derive a control problem and the conditions for optimal control of the disease using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle and it was shown that an optimal control exists for the proposed model. The optimality system is solved numerically, the numerical simulation of the model shows that possible optimal control strategies become more effective in the control and containment of typhoid fever when vaccination and educational campaign are combined optimally would reduce the spread of the disease.