Browsing by Author "Oguntolu, F. A."

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A Mathematical Model of a Yellow Fever Dynamics with Vaccination
(Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics, 2015-11) Oguntolu, F. A.; Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Eguda, F. Y.; Ashezua. T. T.
In this paper, a mathematical model describing the dynamics of yellow fever epidemics, which involves the interactions of two principal communities of Hosts (Humans) and vectors (mosquitoes) is considered .The existence and uniqueness of solutions of the model were examined by actual solution. We conduct local stability analysis for the model. The results show that it is stable under certain conditions. The system of equations describing the phenomenon was solved analytically using parameter-expanding method coupled with direct integration. The results are presented graphically and discussed. It is discovered that improvement in Vaccination strategies will eradicate the epidemics.
Approximate Solution of SIR Infectious Disease Model Using Homotopy Pertubation Method (HPM).
(Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 2013-11-20) Abubakar, Samuel; Akinwande, N. I.; Jimoh, O. R.; Oguntolu, F. A.; Ogwumu, O. D.
In this paper we proposed a SIR model for general infectious disease dynamics. The analytical solution is obtained using the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM). We used the MATLAB computer software package to obtain the graphical profiles of the three compartments while varying some salient parameters. The analysis revealed that the efforts at eradication or reduction of disease prevalence must always match or even supersede the infection rate.
Bifurcation Analysis on the Mathematical Model of Measles Disease Dynamics
(Universal Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2013-12-12) Abubakar, Samuel; Akinwande, N. I.; Abdulrahman, S.; Oguntolu, F. A.
In this paper we proposed a Mathematical model of Measles disease dynamics. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) state, Endemic Equilibrium (EE) states and the characteristic equation of the model were obtained. The condition for the stability of the Disease Free equilibrium state was obtained. We analyze the bifurcation of the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) and the result of the analysis was presented in a tabular form.
Homotopy Perturbation Analysis of the Spread and Control of Lassa Fever
(Proceedings of International Conference on Mathematical Modelling Optimization and Analysis of Disease Dynamics (ICMMOADD), 2024-02-22) Tsado, D.; Oguntolu, F. A.; Somma, Samuel Abu
Lassa fever, a viral infection transmitted by rodents, has emerged as a significant global health concern in recent times. It continues to garner significant attention daily basis owing to its rapid transmission and deadly nature. In this study, the Homotopy Perturbation Analysis was conducted to examine the spread and control of Lassa fever. The human population was categorized into susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered compartments, while the rodent population was divided into susceptible and infected recovered compartments. By applying the Homotopy Perturbation Analysis to the nonlinear differential equations associated with these compartments, we were able to obtain the analytical solution for the spread and control of Lassa fever. The nonlinear differential equations were integrated into the Homotopy Perturbation framework and solved to form a power series solution. Finally, the final approximate solutions were obtained and simulation results were generated from the general solution graphically.
Local Stability Analysis of a River Blindness Disease Model with Control
(Pacific Journal of Science and Technology., 2018-05-12) Oguntolu, F. A.; Bolarin, G. A.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Bello, A. O.
In this paper, a mathematical model to study the dynamics of River Blindness is presented. The existence and uniqueness of solutions of the model were examined by actual solution. The effective reproduction number was obtained using the next generation matrix. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) State was obtained and analysed for stability. It was found that, the DFE State is Locally Asymptotically Stable (LAS) if the effective unstable if reproduction number R 0  1 .
Local Stability Analysis of a River Blindness Disease Model with Control
(Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 2018-05-22) Oguntolu, F. A.; Bolarin, G.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Bello, A. O.
In this paper, a mathematical model to study the dynamics of River Blindness is presented. The existence and uniqueness of solutions of the model were examined by actual solution. The effective reproduction number was obtained using the next generation matrix. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) State was obtained and analysed for stability. It was found that, the DFE State is Locally Asymptotically Stable (LAS) if the effective unstable if reproduction number R 0  1 . R 0  1 and
Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
(2022-12-10) Akinwande, N. I; Ashezua, T. T.; Gweryina, R. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Oguntolu, F. A.; A. Usman
COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the environment in the midst of booster vaccine program. Theoretically, we prove some basic properties of the full model as well as investigate the existence of SARS-CoV-2-free and endemic equilibria. The SARS-CoV-2-free equilibrium for the special case, where the constant inflow of corona virus into the environment by any other means, Ωis suspended (Ω =0)is globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number 𝑅0𝑐<1and unstable if otherwise. Whereas in the presence of free-living Corona viruses in the environment (Ω >0), the endemic equilibrium using the centremanifold theory is shown to be stable globally whenever 𝑅0𝑐>1. The model is extended into optimal control system and analyzed analytically using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. Results from the optimal control simulations show that strategy E for implementing the public health advocacy, booster vaccine program, treatment of isolated people and disinfecting or fumigating of surfaces and dead bodies before burial is the most effective control intervention for mitigating the spread of Corona virus. Importantly, based on the available data used, the study also revealed that if at least 70%of the constituents followed the aforementioned public health policies, then herd immunity could be achieved for COVID-19 pandemic in the community.
Modelling the impacts of media campaign and double dose vaccination in controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria
(Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2023-08-16) Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Olayiwola, R. O.; Ashezua, T. T.; Gweryina, R. I.; Oguntolu, F. A.
Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a lethal disease that poses public health challenge in both developed and developing countries of the world. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical use of COVID-19 vaccines and noncompliance to COVID-19 health protocols, this study presents a deterministic model with an optimal control problem for assessing the community-level impact of media campaign and double-dose vaccination on the transmission and control of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the model shows that, using the Lyapunov function theory and the theory of centre manifold, the dynamics of the model is determined essentially by the control reproduction number (𝑅𝑚𝑣). Consequently, the model undergoes the phenomenon of forward bifurcation in the absence of the double dose vaccination effects, where the global disease-free equilibrium is obtained whenever 𝑅𝑚𝑣 ≤ 1. Numerical simulations of the model using data relevant to the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nigeria, show that, certain values of the basic reproduction number ((𝑅0 ≥ 7)) may not prevent the spread of the pandemic even if 100% media compliance is achieved. Nevertheless, with assumed 75% (at 𝑅0 = 4)) media efficacy of double dose vaccination, the community herd immunity to the disease can be attained. Furthermore, Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used for the analysis of the optimized model by which necessary conditions for optimal controls were obtained. In addition, the optimal simulation results reveal that, for situations where the cost of implementing the controls (media campaign and double dose vaccination) considered in this study is low, allocating resources to media campaign-only strategy is more effective than allocating them to a firstdose vaccination strategy. More so, as expected, the combined media campaign-double dose vaccination strategy yields a higher population-level impact than the media campaign-only strategy, double-dose vaccination strategy or media campaign-first dose vaccination strategy.
Modelling the Impacts of Media Campaign and Double Dose Vaccination in Controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria.
(Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2023-02-21) Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Olayiwola, R. O.; Ashezua, T. T.; Gweryina, R. I.; Oguntolu, F. A.; Abdurahman, O. N.
Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a lethal disease that poses public health challenge in both developed and developing countries of the world. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical use of COVID-19 vaccines and noncompliance to COVID-19 health protocols, this study presents a deterministic model with an optimal control problem for assessing the community-level impact of media campaign and double-dose vaccination on the transmission and control of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the model shows that, using the Lyapunov function theory and the theory of centre manifold, the dynamics of the model is determined essentially by the control reproduction number (𝑅𝑚𝑣). Consequently, the model undergoes the phenomenon of forward bifurcation in the absence of the double dose vaccination effects, where the global disease-free equilibrium is obtained whenever 𝑅𝑚𝑣 ≤ 1. Numerical simulations of the model using data relevant to the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nigeria, show that, certain values of the basic reproduction number ((𝑅0 ≥ 7)) may not prevent the spread of the pandemic even if 100% media compliance is achieved. Nevertheless, with assumed 75% (at 𝑅0 = 4)) media efficacy of double dose vaccination, the community herd immunity to the disease can be attained. Furthermore, Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used for the analysis of the optimized model by which necessary conditions for optimal controls were obtained. In addition, the optimal simulation results reveal that, for situations where the cost of implementing the controls (media campaign and double dose vaccination) considered in this study is low, allocating resources to media campaign-only strategy is more effective than allocating them to a firstdose vaccination strategy. More so, as expected, the combined media campaign-double dose vaccination strategy yields a higher population-level impact than the media campaign-only strategy, double-dose vaccination strategy or media campaign-first dose vaccination strategy.
Semi-Analytical Solution for the Mathematical Modeling of Yellow Fever Dynamics Incorporating Secondary Host
(Communication in Mathematical Modeling and Applications, 2019-04-15) Somma, Samuel Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Abah, R. T.,; Oguntolu, F. A.; Ayegbusi, F. D.
In this paper we use Differential Transformation Method (DTM) to solve the mathematical modeling of yellow fever dynamics incorporating secondary host. The DTM numerical solution was compared with the MAPLE RungeKutta 4-th order. The variable and parameter values used for analytical solution were estimated from the data obtained from World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF. The results obtained are in good agreement with Runge-Kutta. The solution was also presented graphically and gives better understanding of the model. The graphical solution showed that vaccination rate and recovery rate play a vital role in eradicating the yellow fever in a community.