Browsing by Author "O.J. Peter"

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    Mathematical Analysis of the Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2025-05-15) F.A. Oguntolu; O.J. Peter; D. Aldila; G. B. Balogun; O. P. Ogunmola; B. I. Omede
    Hepatitis B is a life-threatening hepatic illness induced by the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). This is a major worldwide health issue, especially in low- and middle-income nations in Africa and the Western Pacific, where prevalence rates are the greatest. Nevertheless, the existence of an efficacious vaccination, Hepatitis B persists in inflicting significant morbidity and death owing to a deficiency of awareness regarding the illness. Thus, we developed a deterministic mathematical model to elucidate the transmission dynamics of Hepatitis B, integrating elements such as vertical transmission, re-infection, and environmental viral concentration. The study starts with the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the assessment of the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium employing the Routh-Hurwitz criteria. A comprehensive examination of the model indicates that the model may experience backward bifurcation phenomena under some specific conditions. This trait presents considerable challenges in the proper management of Hepatitis B infection among the population. Assuming no re-infection of Hepatitis B post-recovery, the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number was conducted to assess the influence of each fundamental parameter in the model that contributes to disease transmission. Utilizing the optimal control theory to effectively curb the spread of Hepatitis B, we incorporated two time-varying control strategies, namely the prevention of susceptible individuals from acquiring HBV (through safe sex practice, regular washing of hands, and using protective hand gloves when handling blood, body fluid and semen) and the sensitization on individuals on personal hygiene, sterilization and proper disposal of medical and dental equipment like syringes in order to reduce the shedding of HBV in the environment. The numerical simulations indicated that Hepatitis B infection may be effectively managed and mitigated within the community if both control measures are correctly implemented.
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    Modeling prevalence of meningitis control strategies through evaluating with available data on meningitis cases reported in Nigeria
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2025-05-14) O.J. Peter; F.A. Oguntolu; N. Nyerere; A. El-Mesady
    Meningitis is a major public health concern, especially in developing nations, due to its devastating consequences for human health. Although modeling studies have examined disease transmission dynamics, little attention has been paid to how control strategies affect the behavior of different population groups, including carriers, symptomatic individuals, hospitalized patients, and those in intensive care. This study proposes a computational framework that compares the effectiveness of vaccination of people at risk of the disease versus treating symptomatic infected persons. The basic reproduction number is used to evaluate the equilibrium points. Assess the precision of the proposed model’s illustration to data. We fit the meningitis model using the information at our disposal on meningitis cases reported in Nigeria from the first week of January to the last week of December 2023; this was obtained from the Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC) database. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using a normalized forward sensitivity index to see which parameters had significant effects on the effective reproduction number. The results of both analytical techniques and numerical simulations reveal that recruitment rate, vaccination, progression from carrier to symptomatic stages, and disease-induced death all significantly reduce the incidence and prevalence of meningitis in the community. The study findings could be used to inform decisions about meningitis control initiatives.